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|Title: ||Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios : the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa|
|Authors: ||Tonnang, Henri E.Z.|
Kangalawe, Richard Y.M.
Yanda, Pius Z.
|Issue Date: ||2010|
|Publisher: ||BioMed Central|
|Abstract: ||Background: Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are
climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease
risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new
zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by
entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable
prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa.
Methods: The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The
model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to
climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment
for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values
were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of
Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios.
Results: These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur
rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are
crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate
planning for various adaptation options.
Conclusion: Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in
setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria
vectors control programmes in Africa.|
|Project Number: ||104391|
|Project Title: ||African Climate Change Fellowship|
|Appears in Collections:||Health / Santé|
Research Results (CCAA) / Résultats de recherches (ACCA)
IDRC Research Results / Résultats de recherches du CRDI
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