Climate change impacts on productivity of dry lands in Sudan

Abstract

Sudan is one of the top 13 countries regarding the extent of dry land coverage. The area that fell under dry land classification is more than 1.5 million km2. Despite the extensive coverage of dry lands, it is water and not land that limits the agricultural production. Thus climate change and variability were expected to present an unprecedented challenges regarding sustainable food production. Critical Analysis of the available data in Sudan showed that droughts and floods with varying severity have inflicted Sudan several times during the past with more frequent recurrences during the recent years. A decreasing trend in rainfall by about 0.5 to 5.0 mm per year was observed over 12 meteorological stations between 1952 and 1992. Another study revealed that the northern dry land parts of the country (between latitude 18° and 22° N) have the highest frequencies of receiving half the normal rainfall. On the other hand, temperatures have shown a rising trend between 1960 and 2006 in most parts of the country. A most recent study under the country's participation on the UN Environmental Program for western Sudan showed that the projection in temperature rise in 2030 would be in the range of 0.5 to 1 °C. The combined effects of rainfall decrease and temperature rise would have devastating effects on agricultural production and productivity which would reflects negatively on food security especially in fragile and drought/conflict prone areas such as Darfour region and in dry land areas in the east and northern parts of the country. This will also affects the utilization of water resources, as new policies and adaptation plans are required to deal with the alarming new situation imposed by climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme weather events. A reduction in yield of sorghum and millet (two of the major food crops in central and western Sudan) by about 13-82% for sorghum and 20-70% for millet is anticipated in western Sudan in coming two decades. This paper discuss the impacts of climate change and variability on agricultural productivity and water resources in addition, it highlights the outlines of the most suitable adaptation plans.