Rainfall of the Sudan : characteristics and prediction

Abstract

The paper highlights challenges facing the water sector at the global and national levels. The impacts of rainfall variability on the environment and socioeconomic conditions of the Sudan were discussed. Taking into consideration factors affecting rainfall of the country like the position of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity Zone (ITDZ), the subtropical anticyclones and climate change. Recent studies showed that the areal annual averaged rainfall values of the country decreased markedly since early sixties. It varies from almost nil in the North to about 1500 mm at the extreme Southwest. The rain-producing clouds in tropical areas including Sudan belong to the vertically-developing group. The months of July –August-September were found to constitute the general rainy season of the Sudan. The paper also reviews rainfall prediction studies that use both the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event and global Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as predictors. However, more emphasis has been given on the ENSO event because of its global popularity as a rainfall-predictor. The paper concluded that Sudan’s rainfall can reasonably be predicted and more accuracy can be obtained with further studies.