Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/10625/46456
Title: Early prediction of malaria epidemics in the East African Highlands using climate data
Authors: Kenya medical research institute
Keywords: MALARIA
EPIDEMIOLOGY
DISEASE CONTROL
PROPHYLAXIS
MALARIA EPIDEMICS
EARLY PREDICTION
CLIMATE DATA
WEATHER
EAST AFRICA
Date: 2010
Publisher: Climate and Human Health Research Unit, Kenya medical research institute, Nairobi, KE
Abstract: Malaria epidemic early warning has been problematic and the current methods of detecting epidemics do not provide sufficient time to implement interventions. The climate based models for early prediction of malaria epidemic detect weather conditions that support rapid development of malaria parasites in the vectors and also rapid increase vector populations leading to the evolution of epidemics. The models can detect these conditions 2-3 months ahead of the epidemic thus providing sufficient time to deploy interventions. The development of models has been completed for highland sites in East Africa. The models show high sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power. The Meteorological departments will provide input data and information generated by the models will be used by the National Malaria Control Programs to make discussions on when, and where to intervene. The tool will provide much greater certainty in decision making of epidemic control.
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10625/46456
Project Number: 104707
Project Title: Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa
Access: IDRC Only
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